20% complete; forecast June 8

[MerePeer]

My current calculated forecast is June 8 for 100%. Forecasting is a bit variable with the rough start and the active users increasing.

Total work done so far: 2,073,510,616
Goal amount of work: 10,000,000,000

[magnav0x]

We should dub MerePeer the weather man :D

[pfb]

give it a 3 or 4 days and I should have that kind of stat on the my Summary page (http://wibble.bounceme.net/Sneakers/summary.php) :)

I'd knock a few days off that as Howard should be restoring the points from the 910 errors ;)

[MerePeer]

Nice summary page!

Hard to see, for instance, Sneakers team with 3D lines...maybe consider a style that doesn't fill, like tape?

[pfb]

still working out the graphs - trying to keep things easy on the coding side but 'complex' on the info side...having the semi-transparent area graph is the easiest way at the moment...

[MerePeer]

Huge dumpage (or point awards) over last 24 hrs by cows it seems from your overall stat page. Overall completion went up 3% in last 24 hrs.

[pfb]

Originally posted by MerePeer
Huge dumpage (or point awards) over last 24 hrs by cows it seems from your overall stat page. Overall completion went up 3% in last 24 hrs.

yeah MrMr did a 13 million dump earlier...:eek:

[pfb]

Now capturing the stats for the ETC calculation - show be showing in a few updates for the hourly-based ETC, and a day or 2 for the daily-based ETC...

You'll notice the total structures completed I have is different from the total structures completed on the main DF site - this is due to the disparity I am picking up between the stats and the tarball (it seems the stats pages are slightly older (stats-wise) than the tarball)...

[MerePeer]

That is going to be excellent! Nice job :thumbs:

[pfb]

you were slightly ahead :


ETC (based on hourly production): Fri 11 Jun 2004, 08:03:51 GMT Standard Time

ETC (based on daily production): Sat 12 Jun 2004, 14:03:51 GMT Standard Time

The ETC code seems to have integrated well with the main stats (aside from the disparity issue and a few false starts...)

few more days stats should sharpen up the time but it looks like the week starting 14th Jun will be the next changeover...(unless Howard & Co. change something...)

[MerePeer]

Why are my calcs so far off of yours?

(a) 5/2/2004 12:27 921,833,268 (9.22%)
(b) 5/10/2004 20:02 3,292,972,555 (32.93%)

% difference between (a) and (b): 23.71%
number of hours between (a) and (b): 199.58
average number of hours to produce 1% (hours/%diff): 8.41719145
% remaining (100-32.93): 67.07%
# hours to complete remaining 67.07% (8.41719145*67.07): 564.54 hours (or 23.5 days)
May 10 + 23.5 days => June 3

[pfb]

prob because mine uses the average hourly production rate - which is the same method as the conquest/threat analysis and has proved fairly accurate in testing - rather than the time it takes to do 1%...the most amount of data that would be used is 7 days which I haven't had yet so the more accurate guesstimate isn't complete yet...


going to keep an eye on the calc and see whether it is accurate or not for this protein...if not might do some tweaking...

[MerePeer]

ok will monitor it. As users return to the project we may see a rate increase anyway. Thx for adding ETC; its nice to know an approx end date.
:)

[MerePeer]

We still have a big disparity. I'm figuring about June 2. Yours is June 14:

Total points for current protein: 3,836,461,587 (38.36% done)
ETC (based on hourly production): Mon 14 Jun 2004, 11:00:00 GMT Standard Time
ETC (based on daily production): Sun 13 Jun 2004, 05:00:00 GMT Standard Time

So lets take another look, and another approach at the calculation, using only 24 hours of data, and not using the percentage.

The equation:
X days remaining = (total points remaining) divided by (total points done in a 24 period)

Taking this recent 24 hour period:

(start date) 5/11/2004 6:02 (start value) 3,419,999,382
(end date) 5/12/2004 6:02 (end value) 3,732,449,643

We have a (total points done in 24hr) of 312,450,261
And (total points remaining) of (10,000,000,000 - 3,732,449,643) = 6,267,550,357
And the division of 6,267,550,357 / 312,450,261 = 20.05935389 days
So then we add 20.05935389 days + 5/12/2004 6:02

and come up with a 6/1/2004 7:27 completion.

And if I use a 10 day average, I come up with 6/2.

[pfb]

for the past 24 hour period I have only got 306,292,909...I think this is lower as there are still disparity issues with the stats produced for the tarball - some updates give more points done the site shows and quite few give me less...

not much I can do about that - except for monitoring it and reporting to the DF team... :haddock:

[pfb]

bit of checking and tweaking...seems to be more in line with what you're getting :


Total points for current protein: 3,868,477,911 (38.68% done)

ETC (based on hourly production): Wed 2 Jun 2004, 01:00:00 GMT Standard Time

ETC (based on daily production): Tue 1 Jun 2004, 14:00:00 GMT Standard Time


It seems even though I was calculating points left, I was using overall goal instead (that'll teach me for not thinking when copying and pasting...) :crazy:

Thanks for the sanity checks - hopefully it's all OK now (bar the minor disparity errors between the DF stats shown and provided in the tarball)...

[MerePeer]

Much better! Thx again.