Winning numbers for 5/21 contest

[jasong]

For Lauren's contest the winning number is 5.

For Bok's contest the winning number is 3.

Congratulations to the winners, whoever they are.

[LAURENU2]

Damm J it is 1 to 8 Not seven


I am going to void this draw

Contest Is voided and will be picked again

Bok Can you pick 2 numbers 1 to 8 and post them here at 9 pm tonight
I will reorder my list

[Bok]

I've got to head out...

can you get IB or someone to pick 'em ?

Bok

[jasong]

Guys, read my posting in the other 5/21 thread please.

[Bok]

ok, was delayed. Heading out now.

Lauren, I think the draw is valid, even if jason did WAY over complicate things.

But the decision is your's

Bok

[IronBits]

Jasong said ...
1. Result:101 (4+0+1=5)
2. Result:011 (0+2+1=3)
If there were 3 heads in a row, that would've been 000=8.

Sounds random enough for me! :cheers:

Altho...
I think watching Bok being shaken and stirred by his wife, before he chooses the numbers, mentally of course, is much more entertaining :rotfl:

[LAURENU2]

Originally posted by Bok
I've got to head out...

can you get IB or someone to pick 'em ?

Bok

OK IB will you pick 2 numbers 1 to 8 IN 45 min or 9:00 pm

I just write names on slips of paper and pick them out of a cup to get there numbed order

Picking a number from a combination of flips is slanted toward certain numbers
of probability's to get 8 with 3 of the same flips is going against the odds

IMO it is beter just to pick a number out of you head then to do a filp of a coin

[jasong]

Originally posted by LAURENU2
OK IB will you pick 2 numbers 1 to 8 IN 45 min or 9:00 pm

I just write names on slips of paper and pick them out of a cup to get there numbed order

Picking a number from a combination of flips is slanted toward certain numbers
of probability's to get 8 with 3 of the same flips is going against the odds

IMO it is beter just to pick a number out of you head then to do a filp of a coin Not to be an ass, but 2^3 is 8, even if that 8 is actually a zero.

000=0
001=1
010=2
011=3
100=4
101=5
110=6
111=7

I anticipated the possibility of an eighth person, although in my estimation it was actually Moogie, which turned out to be wrong.

[IronBits]

Ok then, jumps up and down, turns around till :looney:

:umm:

7

:umm:

4

:cheers: to the winners :cheers:

[LAURENU2]

5/21 List 2nd

[1]redukt

[2]Moogie

[3]birdman2584

[4]n7vxj

[5]CaptainMooseInc

[6]NEBOJSA

[7]Longbow

[8]em99010pepe

[LAURENU2]

Originally posted by jasong
Not to be an ass, but 2^3 is 8, even if that 8 is actually a zero.

000=0
001=1
010=2
011=3
100=4
101=5
110=6
111=7

I anticipated the possibility of an eighth person, although in my estimation it was actually Moogie, which turned out to be wrong.

Ok prhaps if you run a test you might understand flip a coin 3 X record it and repeat it 10 more times (30 flips)
I am sure you will find that 111=7 and 000=0 or 8 in this case will not come up

Think of the three picks like a slot machine getting 3 of a kind in a row has the Odds against it that is why you win

But your pick method was not the reason I voided the draw it was that you stated in a post
Your picks where 1 to 7
I thought I did make it clear that you had to pick two numbers 1 to 8

[redukt]

Congrats n7vxj and Longbow! Now let's BBQ!

[FluffyChicken]

LARENU2

You are wrong, :Pokes:

That method is not biased towards any specific outcome (unlike getting someone to pick a number)


If you want the math to prove it I can show you it

But basically
first number = 50% chance of getting 1 or 0
second no. = 50% chance of getting 1 or 0
third number = 50% chance of getting 1 or 0

neither toss effects the other and because the numbers don't get rearranged there's no binning effect.


Jasong mehtod is valid (and certainly more random than picking a number)

[Moogie]

Congrats to everyone!!!! :cheers:

[meep]

FC, that withstanding, it is probably the most overcomplicated number picking method I have ever seen ;)

[n7vxj]

O.K. I apparently won something,which was it, Lauren's or Boks?Either way, it's gonna mean another cruncher to help with the barbacue!!!:D

[LAURENU2]

FluffyChicken


LARENU2

You are wrong,

I think not ,
I have done the 30 flip thing twice (60 flips) not once did I get a 3 of a kind And that was what is needed to get 7 or 8. I am not saying it is impossible , But the odds are against it
FC you try it or lets all try it and report back here
To be fair I would think 3 of a kind would have to come up at least 2 to 3 times in 20 patterns(3 flips)

Again the method was not the reason I voided the draw it was that he stated in a post
(( picks where 1 to 7))
I wanted every one to feel they had a even chance And that post made it seem like he was leaving someone out. But I guess with my dibble blind pick
not relying on just one person to pick the outcome it is still fair in the overall picture.

[LAURENU2]

Originally posted by n7vxj
O.K. I apparently won something,which was it, Lauren's or Boks?Either way, it's gonna mean another cruncher to help with the barbacue!!!:D

[7]Longbow Won the New 2600 CPU / MB combo

[4]n7vxj Won the 1400 system offerd By BOK

[Bok]

Statistics....

http://arnoldkling.com/apstats/coins.html

http://www.math.duke.edu/education/ccp/materials/fin/prob1/prob12.html

I think thinking of a number is better ;)

Bok

p.s. also, in practice, the odds of getting a head and tail is not exactly 50/50, because no coin is really perfect, but that's being pedantic !

[jasong]

If the contestants have no complaints, I have no complaints.

I'll make no more statements or claims unless the 5 and 3 choice from the first selection complain(I'm not sure who that is). Otherwise, I'm happy with Lauren's decision.

[redukt]

I think we all need to pitch in to get jasong a binary clock from thinkgeek after this :neener:

[jasong]

Originally posted by redukt
I think we all need to pitch in to get jasong a binary clock from thinkgeek after this :neener:

You may have put a :neener: in your message, but I think those things are incredibly cool.

[redukt]

I want one too. I tried to teach the girlfriend binary and hex the other day, but apparently I've tried before and had just forgotten. And apparently once was enough for her, because she wasn't nearly as excited as I was...

[n7vxj]

If they crunch FaD, then I want one! Otherwise..phooey on it!!!:rotfl:

[bwkaz]

Originally posted by LAURENU2
I have done the 30 flip thing twice (60 flips) not once did I get a 3 of a kind And that was what is needed to get 7 or 8. I am not saying it is impossible , But the odds are against it The odds aren't any more against 3-of-a-kind than they're against any other 3-long sequence of outcomes. How many times did you get 0, 0, 1?

BTW, 60 coin flips is not nearly enough to be a truly random sample. You'd have to do something like 8000 3-flip sequences (flip a coin 24000 times). All you've proven here is that your sample size was too small to gauge the real probabilities of each outcome. ;)

(And actually, the probability of flipping a coin 10000 times, and getting five heads in a row at some point, is fairly high. Not that that really relates to anything you're saying, but it's an interesting outcome nonetheless. The reason is that out of five flips, the probability of getting 5 heads is 1/32. But out of 10000 flips, there are 9992 five-flip sequences in total, making it fairly likely that one of them will be the 5-head outcome.)

Each coin flip is independent. Therefore, you can find the probability of a given sequence of 3 flips (for example, heads, tails, heads) by taking the probability of each (0.5, 0.5 and 0.5, since both sides are equally probable (or at least we assume they are)), and multiplying them together. You get 1/8 for all permutations. (Because a different value was assigned to each flip, order matters.)


To be fair I would think 3 of a kind would have to come up at least 2 to 3 times in 20 patterns(3 flips) But that's still WAY too small of a sample. We'd all have to try about 8000 3-flip sequences, and see if we got somewhere in the neighborhood of 1000 3-of-a-kinds.

And we would.

(To prove it, or at least convincingly demonstrate it, I've written a Python program. Source:


#!/usr/bin/env python

import random

# This dict maps each outcome tuple to the number of times it occurred.
outcomes = {(0, 0, 0): 0,
(0, 0, 1): 0,
(0, 1, 0): 0,
(0, 1, 1): 0,
(1, 0, 0): 0,
(1, 0, 1): 0,
(1, 1, 0): 0,
(1, 1, 1): 0}

# 8000 sets of 3-coin flips
for i in range(8000):
# random.randint(0, 1) returns either 0 or 1, with a uniform distribution.
# It's pseudo-random, not random, but it's close enough for this.
flipset = (random.randint(0, 1), random.randint(0, 1), random.randint(0, 1))

# Bump the count of this flipset
outcomes[flipset] += 1

# Print results
for pair in outcomes.items():
print str(pair[0]) + ": " + str(pair[1]) Sample run:


$ ./prob.py
(0, 1, 1): 997
(1, 1, 0): 1007
(1, 0, 0): 960
(0, 0, 1): 1042
(1, 0, 1): 1050
(0, 0, 0): 983
(0, 1, 0): 974
(1, 1, 1): 987 Notice how all outcomes are close to 1000. (If I worked some more, I might be able to sort the results, although I don't know for sure.) If you have Python, run the script yourself a bunch of times. Sometimes the (0, 0, 0) tuple is above 1000, sometimes it isn't. Sometimes the (1, 1, 1) tuple is above 1000, sometimes it isn't. Same with all the others.)

[LAURENU2]

$ ./prob.py
(0, 1, 1): 997
(1, 1, 0): 1007
(1, 0, 0): 960
(0, 0, 1): 1042
(1, 0, 1): 1050
(0, 0, 0): 983
(0, 1, 0): 974
(1, 1, 1): 987

What this Proves is that you are less likely to get 3 of the same flip

you have a total of 1970 3 of a kind flips
And you have 6030 2 of a kind flips

I think this tell me you have only a 1 in 4 chance that you would get 3 of a kind
And that you are 3 times more likely to a 2+1 of a kind

And I think it is why casino slots work with a 3 match on slot machines
I relay do not think they would want a game that would not win for them most of the time

Even in poker 3 of a kind beats a pair WHY because it is harder to come by

If you do the math on the numbers you gave In 1000 flips you will get a 2+1 flip 753.75 times and get a 3 of a kind flip 246.25 times

The only thing that is even in a coin toss is heads or tails
On the math it shows 12045 of one and 11955 of the other

But again I will say the method that was used by jasong was not the reason for the void
I voided it after I posted my picks and came here and saw jasong post about picks being 1 to 7
I Voided it at that time. It was only after that jasong posted his method's and thoughts about it That I posted I thought it was unfair to pick a number in that way

But with the system I setup with 2 picks and a match between the 2, the winners can only be from random chance . But all picker's must pick from all picks or the system does not work

[IronBits]

You guys are giving me a headache! :bang: ;)

[LAURENU2]

Originally posted by IronBits
You guys are giving me a headache! :bang: ;)
Yes me to But I feel I am being placed in a position where I have to defend my decision to void that draw I had to do what I thought was right at the time

[IronBits]

No deFence required :thumbs:
and thank you for doing this for Free-DC ! :notworthy

[CaptainMooseInc]

I've mastered the art of flipping a coin (ANY COIN) and getting whatever I have facing up to be what the outcome is. I can flip it, catch it, and slap it on my hand and only once in the past 5 years have I not gotten what faced up...

So really I could get heads or tails at my disclosure. :)

-Jeff

[FluffyChicken]

Laurenu2,

I'm not meaning for you to defend the redraw I know why that was done.

But I am defending jasongs method.


We are not talking about 2 of a kinds, that is irrelevant here (but you are correct in the poker stakes way). We are talking about the chance of getting a specific sequence in a set order.

:umm:


anyways,

I hope the winners have them read for when the :cow: are let out of the :cage:

[Longbow]

WoW, can't believe I won! Thanks, you guys are the best!

[n7vxj]

Yea, I'm very grateful for all you Guys have done as well!! They are the best, and anyone who would say different is a :swear: I can't wait to get my new addition here and crunchin!! I might even make the 8 million club soon with it.That is if we ever get those dang slow uu queries done!! lol One other thing Guys.I've finally got the duallie up, and running FaD.Yea, the one I installed Linux on.The ones of you who took the time,and had the patience to guide me through it, and give me all the :help: , thanks a million!! Now, I've gone and gotten a book on Linux, and started studying.I'm totally determined to learn Linux this time around!!

Dan

[jasong]

I'm in what I consider a bad situation here. I totally support Lauren in his decision to redo things, but I feel like people are being victimized with bad math.

I'll respond as soon as the 5/28 drawing is under our belt, if there is one.

[jasong]

Originally posted by jasong
I'm in what I consider a bad situation here. I totally support Lauren in his decision to redo things, but I feel like people are being victimized with bad math.

I'll respond as soon as the 5/28 drawing is under our belt, if there is one.

Edit: I've changed my mind, I'm going to express my support for Lauren's decision and then give a math lesson in the Lounge.

[em99010pepe]

Congratulations Longbow and n7vxj.


Originally posted by Longbow
WoW, can't believe I won! Thanks, you guys are the best!


Longbow, I see you're going to put the machine on eOn.:bang:

Carlos

[LAURENU2]

as the 5/28 drawing is under our belt, if there is one.

Might have to skip this one as I can't find any good deals to Give A Way But I will keep looking