When we are going to find next prime ?

[nuutti]

any guesses ?

Yours,
Nuutti

[philmoore]

Soon. I would guess before the end of January at the latest! I also will make a prediction, that SoB finds the third largest known prime some time this year, unless GIMPS discovers another Mersenne first in which case SoB will find the fourth largest known prime.

[Nuri]

I guess that we will find one more prime for the range 2,000,000 < n < 3,000,000 (if so, it should be roughly 600,000 to 900,000 digits).

Taking into account our speed of progress, adding for average processing time and proving time, I also guess that we might be hearing the good news sometime form now on until the end of February.

I prefer to be on the conservative side, so I chose more than 31 days.

I also agree with Philmoore on the second prediction (that we will also find the third - or maybe the fourth if GIMPS finds one - largest prime within 2003).

[Nuri]

I should admit that I was a bit optimistic during the time of that poll.

But, I still think (or, may be hope, guess, wish?) that we'll find at least two primes within 2003. Our sixth prime is already late, and I guess it would not be wrong to expect it anytime soon. And, with the discovery of that prime (which will most probably be the third largest worldwide if nobody else finds something during that time), the project will hopefully get a boost with many new participants, getting the time to discover the seventh to somewhere closer than it is now.

Anyway, we'll see.

[wblipp]

Originally posted by Nuri
Our sixth prime is already late

This got me to thinking about how to model when primes are "due." Is the sixth late, or was the fifth early and the sixth is ontime?

I've previously used a model for the original 17 values and their individual start points that gives the probability of finding "j" primes by level n. One way to define the doorway for when the jth prime "should" appear is the period when the most likely number of primes found is "j". By that model, we are still in the doorway for the 5th prime.

1st &nbsp 800K-1.1M
2nd &nbsp 1.1M-1.6M
3rd &nbsp 1.6M-2.2M
4th &nbsp 2.2M-3.1M
5th &nbsp 3.1M-4.4M
6th &nbsp 4.4M-6.5M
7th &nbsp 6.5M-10.1M
8th &nbsp 10.1M-16.8M
9th &nbsp 16.8M-29.5M
10th &nbsp 29.5M-57M
11th &nbsp 57M-127M
12th &nbsp 127M-344M
13th &nbsp 344M-1.2G
14th &nbsp 1.2G-7.2G
15th &nbsp 7.2G-108G
16th &nbsp 108G-18T
17th &nbsp above 18T

The 5th prime was so early that it came in the 2nd prime's doorway. No wonder it seems like a long time - we've been waiting through the third, fourth, and fifth doorway for another prime. And it's no wonder that expectations were high when we found five primes in the first two doorways.

[eatmadustch]

the 17th prime above 18T? I don't mean to criticize your model, but how realistic do you think this is? I mean that will take years and years and years! You really think it will be like this? (I guess I just find it a little difficult to believe! )

If it really takes that long I guess I can now and my computer. Then I'll have an and go
sorry, I just had to try these new smileys out

[Moo_the_cow]

This was surely one optimistic poll.