It might be a good idea to plot points on the graph that show the current status. You could then try to approximate them with a curve to make a better guess.
Originally posted by maniacken Maybe a siever will possibly win this time. The factor i had was done with sieving.
A siever will probably win this time if it's between you and MikeH. His was a sieve effect too. Whether a P-1 factor will show up is still unknown, but it's not looking bad for sieve this time around.
So, Maniacken has more points, but both MikeH and Maniacken are above 200k. Maybe at the same update? Who knows?
Most importantly, what do we know? Well, we know that a siever won this time (go team!), but it's all about overall team work (go everyone!). So... yay!
i am thinking it occured at the same update. the last time i checked the update was at 8962668 while my pair was at 8962776, and at that time MikeH score was 199931, so i am going to agree that we both scored 200k at the same time.
Using horrible statistical analysis that probably won't predict the future correctly (I expect sieve to speed up instead of continuing at the current rate), I have calculated my guess.
I choose 9.77m +- .01m which requires a sieve level of 1005T. If this guess is correct, then we'll probably hit the proth_sieve barrier around n=10.3m. Hmm, I hope the new sieve client is going okay.