200K points

[maniacken]

Wonder who will be first. It shouldnt be long as we are at 190K already. Wonder if it will be a siever or p-1 person.

My prediction is arround
8.92 M


These look like potential candidates.
1702.070T 8838572 vjs
899.615T 8859581 MikeH
878.096T 8962776 Maniacken


not certain who is in the lead here.

hope everyone has fun.

[vjs]

Yeah that score of mine may reach a 200K but not in time.

That one was actually sieved ...

However sieve will have to come up to 819.5T before mikes 8859581 scores.

I don't think mine will win this time either, also I don't have any other candidates....




Lets see how your score stacks up against mikes.

Mike will need a 815.4T to score 200K where yours will only need a 797.7T

Considering we are at 789.350T your chances look better than mikes.

I'm sure others will come along as we get closer.

At Current time almost any scoring n>9M would win automatically. I would expect that the winning n will be n<9M however.

My current guess would be 8.91 +/- 0.01 which would require 804.4 to 808T.




I could do a better prediction if I knew the sieve T increase per day.

[vjs]

O.K. just top get more people interested here goes a graph...

We are basically scoring at the end points already.

I.E. We have sufficient p to make a 200K score by 9M and the active window has just entered 8.8M but p isn't high enough.


We are basically at the bottom left hand corner, increasing in both p and n.

[royanee]

It might be a good idea to plot points on the graph that show the current status. You could then try to approximate them with a curve to make a better guess.

[vjs]

Royanee,

If I were to average 90%T and n-increase over a few weeks or if someone had that information we could probably predicit it alot closer.

However where is the fun in that

[vjs]

Humm,

Doesn't seem to be as much interest this time around...

Equation for a quick calc of 200K score, n vs 90% T

To get a 200K score with a min p and T use the following equation

T x n^2 = 64000 (where n is in M or 1,000,000)

or

T = 64000/n^2

n = (64000/T)^0.5

Example current 90% T is at 791.083

n= (64000/791.083)^0.5

n=8.994540M or 8994540

[vjs]

possible n at particular day

[vjs]

Looks like I passed the baton to Mike today.

He his factor at n=8859581 will score 200k first when 90% p reaches 815.3679T

Or maniacken's n=8962776 steps in waiting for 90% p= 796.7001T

I would thinking that someone will find a factor in between these two making things more interesting.

[maniacken]

Maybe a siever will possibly win this time. The factor i had was done with sieving.

[vjs]

Might be worth sieving a 1T range above 815T

[royanee]

Originally posted by maniacken
Maybe a siever will possibly win this time. The factor i had was done with sieving.

A siever will probably win this time if it's between you and MikeH. His was a sieve effect too. Whether a P-1 factor will show up is still unknown, but it's not looking bad for sieve this time around.

[maniacken]

Only a day or so to go till we get our first 200 k score. Wonder if a p-1er is holding out and then going to snipe the first 200 k spot.

[Nuri]

hehe...

200k

[royanee]

@ 12:33 AM (sunday morning / saturday night) EST/EDT... NOW!!!, it says the following:

Last Update: Sun 10-Apr-2005 03:08 (GMT+1)
878.096T 33661 8962776 204740.915 Mon 31-Jan-2005 Sat 09-Apr-2005 8.781 220433.211 21.95 (2) Maniacken
899.615T 10223 8859581 200053.393 Fri 05-Mar-2004 Tue 29-Mar-2005 8.996 220664.793 22.49 (2) MikeH

So, Maniacken has more points, but both MikeH and Maniacken are above 200k. Maybe at the same update? Who knows?

Most importantly, what do we know? Well, we know that a siever won this time (go team!), but it's all about overall team work (go everyone!). So... yay!

[maniacken]

i am thinking it occured at the same update. the last time i checked the update was at 8962668 while my pair was at 8962776, and at that time MikeH score was 199931, so i am going to agree that we both scored 200k at the same time.

Nice going MikeH

[Nuri]

cool...

congrats everybody.

next stop 300k.

[ShoeLace]

733.110T 4847 11560911 current=7.331 possible=306198.803


ive got a possible 300k score.. but not until 11.5M

anyone got a closer 'possible' 300k score?

by closer i mean 300k+ and less then 306198

[vjs]

O.K. here is a graph for scoring of the 300k.

The y-axis represents sieve level, I've cut it off at the current level of proth 1126T.
The x-axis is the required n in millions.

As you can see from the graph we start scoring alot sooner if we can increase the sieve level as fast as possible.

As far as points go it's better for everyone to bring up that p as fast as possible before prp reaches the n.

[royanee]

Using horrible statistical analysis that probably won't predict the future correctly (I expect sieve to speed up instead of continuing at the current rate), I have calculated my guess.

I choose 9.77m +- .01m which requires a sieve level of 1005T. If this guess is correct, then we'll probably hit the proth_sieve barrier around n=10.3m. Hmm, I hope the new sieve client is going okay.