Percent Complete (Phase 2)

**the-mk** · 09-21-2007, 02:42 PM

Well, with the "mental" help of wirthi (he provided the Excel sheet and the formulas) I've made a little "possible end of OGR25 phase 2" page, which can be found at http://the-mk.dyndns.org/dnet/

The dates might be a little different from what wirthi has in his excel sheet, that's because he is longer collecting data since I did, but he didn't collect them every day while my script does. I wanted "complete" data without gaps, so I didn't use all his numbers collected...

I hope you enjoy that page

**wirthi** · 09-21-2007, 04:56 PM

Yea, your data is gives a far too high end-date. Mine is somewhere end of April 2008, which might be too late as well.

**the-mk** · 09-22-2007, 02:34 AM

As we say, it is only predicted (if we would have the complete-% from much earlier dates, it would look much more different I think...). And I see that complete data makes not much sense... so I've added all dates from your sheet except the one from May...

**the-mk** · 09-22-2007, 06:06 PM

I'm getting a lot of small stubs at the moment... seems to be sooner end date tomorrow

**wirthi** · 09-27-2007, 02:58 AM

We've taken up more speed again but are still doing only about 0.12% a day. My current prediction is still 27th April. Hope the smaller stubs are coming soon, I want this project to finish this year :-)

**the-mk** · 09-27-2007, 01:31 PM

didn't you say that there will be larger stubs again? I'm against finishing this year, but it would be ok finishing after winter has ended

so I can warm up my rooms with DC power

**wirthi** · 09-27-2007, 01:43 PM

Yes, there will be some *huge* stubs, but in general the trend should continue towards smaller stubs (from what I have read; I could be wrong).

**the-mk** · 10-04-2007, 12:19 AM

We did more than 1% of the stubspace since you last posted

**the-mk** · 10-06-2007, 01:19 AM

That last few days my "days-of-finishing" increased

bigger stubs are sent out again... hopefully they finish soon

**yoyo** · 10-06-2007, 07:00 AM

Saw also that the wus now getting bigger. Is there any rule when ogr's are bigger and when smaller?
yoyo

**wirthi** · 10-06-2007, 07:09 AM

You can mathematically explain why they get bigger and smaller but you never know that stubs the server sends out next. There is some information about the open and finished stub-spaces available on the distributed.net homepage somewhere but that isn't really accurate either.

**wirthi** · 11-03-2007, 06:28 AM

Update on my prediction: after gathering 170 days of data now, the average speed is now at 0.122 percent of the project's workspace completed every day. This figure has a still a slight downward trend though.

I would currently predict the date of 100% now at June 1st, 2008. Still hoping for significantly smaller packets near the end of the project, but to complete the project in 2007 as predicted earlier seems quite impossible.

**alpha** · 11-03-2007, 08:54 AM

A different way of doing this would be to use your data (% per day) to calculate how many stubs are being completed daily. This is quite significant, because we know how many stubs are left, and you can account for stub length adjustments (like when we started 5-diff stubs, project-wide %/day probably dropped slightly). Using that information, you can predict how much our %/day will drop when 4-diff and 3-diff stubs are introduced and use that figure to calculate an ETA.

Remember, the sum of 4-diff and 3-diff stubs is just under 6.8 million. There were over 76 million 5-diff and well over 221 million 6-diff stubs. We actually don't have that much further to go.

Edit: we shouldn't be getting short stubs near the end, unless the team find a bunch of untested ones, or ones lacking second verification, or ones left over from 6-diff or 5-diff stubspace.

**Guilherme** · 01-30-2008, 09:30 PM

2008-01-29 Percent Complete (Phase 2): 79.71%
2008-01-30 Percent Complete (Phase 2): ~80.29%

0.58% in one day.

**the-mk** · 01-31-2008, 12:34 AM

Yeah, that's a lot, but my stubs are currently around 20-50 GNodes "big"...

but the date to completion went down fast to the end of September!

**IronBits** · 01-31-2008, 12:59 AM

So... pretty much for sure this year then...

3rd quarter maybe?

**the-mk** · 01-31-2008, 01:37 PM

as Wirthi says, OGR is a little bit unpredictable, since you don't know how many GNodes a stub takes...

**wirthi** · 01-31-2008, 03:25 PM

Yes, 3rd quarter should be accomplishable. I currently predict August 8th.

**the-mk** · 02-05-2008, 12:17 AM

we completed about 0.49% yesterday!
currently stopping at 81.05%

**wirthi** · 02-05-2008, 08:11 AM

Yes, but we did 965 Gnodes/sec yesterday. That is much, much more than usual (something like 250 would be average I guess). That is still the dump of [DPC] NoizyCows. Or this guy captured a data center on the weekend.

**the-mk** · 02-06-2008, 12:59 AM

OK, didn't have DPC's dump in mind... but capturing a datacenter on the weekend? That would be a very huge one! Anybody knows where NoizyCows is working?

**[NGS]Cpt00Kirk** · 02-06-2008, 05:09 AM

NoizyCows is a sub team of DPC and 1 of the guys in that team has found a big bump in power...

after the 155.000.000 dump 2 days ago, this will be our daily!

From this day forward untill the end he will do 5.700.000 - 6.500.000 A DAY!!!

so be quick with the end-of-OGR page Bok.... we calculated that round june its over and out with OGR!

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