Originally posted by Scoofy12


I assume you mean the odds against getting the winning structure?
Yes.


Originally posted by Scoofy12

I think what howard means when he says the odds are 2.1 x 10^-15 is that this is the probability, for any given generated structure, of that structure beating the current king. sooo... that means that on average you would have to generate 1 over that amount (4.76 x 10^14) of structures to beat 4.73 angstroms. hence howard mentioning that the amount of structures we actually generated to get that is several orders of magnitude lower (we generated 300,000 times FEWER structures than expected). a crude estimate indeed, but great that we are doing better than expected
So if the number of structures projected to be needed to be generated to beat the current King is one or more than the number of structures to be accepted before the cut-off for the protein is done, it means the odds of beating the King is projected as being zero?

And if the number of structures by Howard's formula were one or more less than the number still to be accepted before the cut-off line, the odds of someone beating the current King would be 100%?

Is this right?

I was hoping for some kind of odds statement like "50/50 chance", "1 in 23 chance", or "42,943 to one chance". These odds steadily increasing as the cut-off line gets closer and closer. Could Howard's formula be interpreted in a way to give such odds?